Brexit – Beaten Britain or Fall of Europe?

Countless empires have fallen in the past. This is just one more empire that is standing at the verge of collapse. Empire, not of a state, country, race or religion, but the empire of artificial economy that the world is thoroughly entrapped in today.

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Out of curiosity, today I Googled “Brexit” and found a whooping ~14,40,00,000 results in 0.43 seconds. Compared to that, the word “economy” returned about 71,30,00,000 results in 0.40 seconds. What does this show? Roughly it means that if 100% people are talking about economy, 20% are talking about Brexit. That’s huge and gives a glimpse of what is coming in the next few months and, for sure, years, in terms of world economy. There are literally hundreds of thousands of economists around the world pulling their hair out to estimate the aftereffects of the referendum of the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union. Hardly anyone has a conclusive answer. Even if someone claims to have it, how many are going to agree with it?

A few months back it was the dwindling Greece economy that pervaded newspaper headlines, today it is Britain after it officially voted to pull itself out of the European Union. This sent shivers in stock markets across the world as they sensed United Kingdom breaking apart and the worst yet to come. The Pound has plunged overnight to its 30-year low and business tycoons are still  exercising all patience at their command to maintain sanity. Political fever is at high temperature across Europe and leaders are trying to make impossible possible as they struggle to grab the best of a bad bargain.

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David Cameron didn’t seem to have a choice whether to have a referendum (PA)

It all began in January 2013, when David Cameron made his fateful pledge of a referendum if the Conservatives won the 2015 election. Back then, he perhaps did not realize the severity of leaving EU if his fellow countrymen voted for it. That’s what happened on 23rd June 2016 and Cameron seems determined to not go for another referendum that could alter Britain’s fate. The question is, was he himself in favor of the historical referendum?

“We don’t know for sure but the answer is probably not. That being said, Cameron certainly felt he had little choice over the issue. His attempt to make the Europe question go away by promising a referendum if a UK Government ceded more powers to Brussels did not go far enough for Tory Eurosceptics. Meanwhile, there was a necessity to “shoot the Ukip fox”. Some of those around Mr Cameron – including the Chancellor George Osborne – are understood to have urged him not to go ahead with the pledge warning that it could have disastrous unintended consequences but he thought it was a gamble worth taking.” (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/what-is-brexit-why-is-there-an-eu-referendum-a7042791.html)

After all, a gamble is a gamble. Winning a gamble tempts one into playing bigger gamble and losing it can be devastating. Mr Cameron seems to have lost it. Political analysts strongly believe that the main reason behind Mr Cameron’s gamble was, he did not expect an outright victory in the 2015 general election when he promised the referendum.

Back then, the situation was tricky. Cameron apparently “calculated that Labour under Ed Miliband would not back the plan and the Lib Dems were passionately opposed. Back in 2013 no senior Tory – including Mr Cameron – realistically thought they had a chance of winning an overall majority in 2015 and that another Coalition was likely. That being the case, most people believed that the referendum pledge would be the first thing to go in Coalition talks.” But as a result of that speculation, today it is not only the immediate market fallout that Britain has to worry about, it is their very socio-political landscape. Britain is now divided and the looming political plague not only threatens to wreck the European Union as a whole, it is likely to spread across the globe.

“Meanwhile, European stocks are falling off a cliff, it is no wonder the central bank is trying to calm everyone down and say it will be prepared to step in. The forecasts were unanimous: Brexit would wreck the economy, according to everyone from theUK Treasury, the International Monetary Fund, the OECD, several independent research houses, and the banks. S&P, the ratings agency, said that Britain’s AAA rating is now threatened after it initially warned that a Brexit would hurt the economy. The lower the rating, the more expensive it is for the country to borrow money.

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The Brexit effect

All of this was dubbed as part of “Project Fear”; – a derogatory description by the Leave campaign that insisted all these forecasts were just there to scare people into sticking with the status quo. Usually that works. In referendums held in Britain in years gone by there has pretty much always been a swing towards the status quo option with just days left until voting day. But not this time, and this is why the results of this referendum highlight just how fractured Britain is. (http://www.businessinsider.in/Britain-is-broken-beyond-repair-and-the-worst-is-yet-to-come/articleshow/52903167.cms)

So what’s next? Interestingly, when Greece defaulted on the IMF, we had said this: “Today it is Greece, tomorrow it could be some other nation. This is not about an underdeveloped or developing country but a developed country. And that’s quite a news.  One wonders what does it indicate? Is it the fall of Euro, fall of EU or fall of the world economy.” – Greece defaults – It had to happen. While it may be too early to compare the outcome of Brexit with Greece default, there are every chances that a similar scenario is lurking in Britain’s future.

Not all are waiting for the UK to fall apart and only few may be waiting for Europe to crumble. In a state of economy that the world is in, no sane country would want to see such disasters. However, unfortunately, the past is compelling us to witness an unpleasant future.

Whether the Brexit effect will stop here or after ruining Britain, or will its flares reach the entire Europe and the rest of the world, is something that only time will show, but one thing is sure – in a godless society where economic growth is based on sinful activities and rampant speculations, the fall is inevitable. It’s just a question of time.

Countless empires have fallen in the past. This is just one more empire that is standing at the verge of collapse. Empire, not of a state, country, race or religion, but the empire of artificial economy that the world is thoroughly  entrapped in today.